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What happened to this? (Prediction for 2008: the housing market will recover and another stock market bull run?

What happened to this? (Prediction for 2008: the housing market will recover and another stock market bull run after it hits a low of 12000. America is rich; foreigners will continue to trust us) I just read this prediction that was given just a few months ago. And this was a MAJOR economist talking, not just some idiot. So what happened? And who the heck is Dick Cheney, and why does he have so many Swiss Bank accounts?

Public Comments

1. What happened? MAJOR economist was clearly wrong. What happened? Goldman Sachs said oil was going to $200 a barrel just a few months ago. "Experts" will say whatever they have to at the time to grab the headlines.
2. You can turn on the business news every day and get opinions from A to Z from "experts" who will tell you whatever you want to hear. Nothing new there.
3. Now you can see why Analysts, economists and other "experts" on Wall Street are not well regarded. They know little more than the masses, they just know how to spin it better. Look at Harvard University's endowment fund - run by the "best" brains in the business - down 30% for 2008.
4. Actually who ever made this prediction, IS an idiot. The certainly have no understanding about anything to do with finance, markets, economics, banking, credit, interest rates, risk, or common sense. Take a look at my posts over the last year. (You'll need to add me to view the posts). How do you know that Dick Cheney (US VP) "has so many Swiss accounts?" Link?
5. Experts have gone to school and have done the research, the homework, have paid the dues, and as a result have been given a piece of paper that shows they have "paid the price". Then they are hired by someone who pays them for their expertise. Based on their knowledge, which usually is based in the past, they can then make predictions such as which direction the economy is going to go, or which direction the stock market will move. As a society we place our confidence in the "expert". We do this in the judicial system. We do this in the medicine world. We do this in the stock market and securities world. We do it in the political world. An expert is nothing more than someone we are willing to pay to think for us and to do the homework that we didn't want to do or have the time to do. The expert is an elevated class of citizen, a hired thinker so to speak. When they do well we give them the thumbs up and throw cash their way, but when they do poorely and we follow them, then we crucify them and demand jail sentences, and use them as scape goats. Then we go on our way and feel vindicated in their demise... and we, in general, seek another expert to do our thinking for us.
6. I recall in fall 2006 they said the subprime mortgage problem was "small" and it was "contained". They said it wouldn't bleed over to over mortgages or other loans. Paulson used the same term in fall 2007 saying subprime was "contained". I think they had a house of cards and were trying to keep it propped up. Most money managers get a percentage of total assets under management. If people pull out money they make less. So they are motivated to convince people to keep money in the markets. You will find opinions on both sides. You have to filter through them and determine which makes most sense. I think I seemed to have managed to do that and have made the right call several times at critical points. I got out before this bear market and I missed most of the fall of the internet bubble. At first I thought it was lucky. But realized I was making my own "luck". I did it by asking myself a simpler question; "*At this time* and for the near future, are stocks more likely to go up or go down?" Asking that, regularly, gets me pulling money out when stocks get overpriced. I will normally move 20% at a time. What I have found is doing that, even in steps and not a lot at a time, means when things start to change and go sour I already have been out 50% or more and can pull the rest and miss those very large downturns that should have been obvious to more people. But the market has an upward bias so I would rather be in than out. I am also a "big picture" person. If you look at a long chart we are low here even if stocks fall further. You have to filter out short term noise from the long term condition of stock prices and look at future potential. That potential is weaker than it looked a year ago, but soon the direction will be up, but slowly imo with lots of noise in the middle.
7. They've been saying it long enough and loud enough, but for some reason, reality isn't listening.